INTEGRATING HAWKES PROCESS- ND BIOMASS MODELS TO CAPTURE IMPULSIVE POPULATION DYNAMICS

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling framework that captures the impulsive biomass dynamics (bust-boom) of a fish stock. The framework is based on coupling a Hawkes-process model to a discrete-time, ages-structured population dynamics model. Simulation results are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the framework in capturing impulsive events in the population trajectory. The results presented in this paper are significant in three ways: • A framework has been presented that demonstrates how premonitory information may be extracted from exogenous observations from complex environmental systems • We have demonstrated how exogenous information may be parameterized and incorporated into the modeling process for better understanding of the link between environmental drivers and the population dynamical system • The framework has been successfully applied in modeling and short-term prediction of the population dynamics of an empirical fish stock.