North Sea sensitivity to atmospheric forcing

Abstract

The sensitivity of North Sea physics and phytoplankton production to atmospheric forcing has been studied by performing perturbations of the atmospheric forcing fields through a number of model simulations. The perturbations are kept in the range of expected climate change, to give a first indication of the climate change impacts on regional systems. The model simulations suggest that an increase in air temperature and short wave radiation will increase sea surface temperature, while an increase in wind will decrease it. Increased wind will increase the transports into the North Sea, while the other atmospheric forcings only have a small impact on that. Combining the perturbations indicates a smaller stratified area and a deeper mixed layer. Primary production is expected to increase, with an increase in wind speed having the largest impact.