Modelling the variability of the drift of blue whiting larvae and its possible importance for recruitment
Original version
This report is not to be cited without prior reference to the authorsAbstract
The first 8 months of the drift of blue whiting larvae has been simulated and studied for the 20 year
period 1976-1994, using the 3-dimensional numerical model system NORWECOM (the
NORWegian ECOlogical Model system). The model particles assumed to represent larvae are
released identically in space and time each year according to best "average" knowledge. Large
variations in the drift pattems are seen from year to year, but generally much larger amounts
of larvae than expected seems to drift southward from the Porcupine Bank area west of Ireland to
the Bay of Biscay. Many of these larvae drift into deep water where chances of survival are
assumed to be small. Typically larvae hatched on the northem side of the Porcupine Bank drift
northwards through the Faeroe-Shetland Channel, and most of these larvae are located on the
shelf. Several distribution parameters are selected and compared with ICES time-series of
recruitment.