The use of Medium-Term Forecasts in advice and management decisions for the stock of Norwegian spring spawning herring (Clupea harengus L.)

Abstract

Medium-term simulations on the stock development of Norwegian spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus L.) have been carried out since 1994 by the ICES «Atlanto-Scandian Herring and Capelin Working Group», in 1996 renamed «Northern Pelagic and Blue Whiting Fisheries Working Group. The results of the simulations have been used as a basis for advice on harvest control rules for Norwegian spring spawning herring. The present paper reviews developments of medium-term simulations carried out on this stock and results from mediumterm forecasts carried out in 1995 and 1999 are used as examples. Emphasis is put on the usefulness of the medium-term simulations in the process towards reaching an agreement on a harvest control rule in 1999.