Long-term interplay between harvest regimes and biophysical conditions may lead to persistent changes in age at sexual maturity of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua)

Abstract

This investigation commenced by constructing principal maturation schedule equations as a function of fishing mortality (F), key biophysical factors and a term attributed to fisheries-induced adaptive change (FIAC). Following the onset of industrial trawl fishery on the model stock, Northeast Arctic cod (NEAC; Gadus morhua) (1934–2020), F on immature age group 5–8 years (F5-8) increased and mean age at 50% maturity (A50) decreased from ≈10 years in the late 1940s to ≈7 years today. Large annual fluctuations in total stock biomass (TSB), sea temperature (KolaT) and F5-8 were used to better understand A50 responses. In the model, the annual accumulation of F5-8 drives FIAC. The model includes the option that NEAC may sustain F5-8 up to a certain level (F_bal) before FIAC becomes statistically evident, with F_bal falling between 0.00 and 0.40 for A50. This dynamic range in F_bal indicates a sophisticated, underlying adaptive response. Independent of F_bal, our analysis clarifies that FIAC is necessary to explain the observed changes in A50.