Modeling the Distribution of Habitat-Forming, Deep-Sea Sponges in the Barents Sea: The Value of Data

Abstract

The use of species occurrence as a proxy for habitat type is widespread, probably because it allows the use of species distribution modeling (SDM) to cost-effectively map the distribution of e.g., vulnerable marine ecosystems. We have modeled the distribution of epibenthic megafaunal taxa typical of soft-bottom, Deep-Sea Sponge Aggregations (DSSAs), i.e., “indicators,” to discover where in the Barents Sea region this habitat is likely to occur. The following taxa were collectively modeled: Hexadella cf. dedritifera, Geodia spp., Steletta sp., Stryphnus sp. The data were extracted from MarVid, the video database for the Marine AREAl database for NOrwegian waters (MAREANO). We ask whether modeling density data may be more beneficial than presence/absence data, and whether using this list of indicator species is enough to locate the target habitat. We use conditional inference forests to make predictions of probability of presence of any of the target sponges, and total density of all target sponges, for an area covering a large portion of the Norwegian Barents Sea and well beyond the data’s spatial range. The density models explain <31% of the variance, and the probability models have high classificatory power (AUC > 0.88), depending on the variables/samples used to train the model. The predicted surfaces were then classified on the basis of a probability threshold (0.75) and a density threshold (13 n/100 m2) to obtain polygons of “core area” and “hotspots” respectively (zones). The DSSA core area comprises two main regions: the Egga shelf break/Tromsøflaket area, and the shelf break southwest of Røst bank in the Træna trench. Four hotspots are detected within this core area. Zones are evaluated in the light of whole-community data which have been summarized as taxon richness and density of all megafauna. Total megafaunal density was significantly higher inside the hotspots relative to the background. Richness was not different between zones. Hotspots appeared different to one another in their richness and species composition although no tests were possible. We make the case that the effectiveness of the indicator species approach for conservation planning rests on the availability of density data on the target species, and data on co-occurring species.