Reversing the Match-mismatch relationship: the prey point of view
Working paper
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http://hdl.handle.net/11250/102971Utgivelsesdato
2009Metadata
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Climate influences populations through a variety of processes. One mechanism that may
be particularly important is the role of climate in disrupting un-equally the phenology of
the predator and prey in a food chain. The match-mismatch hypothesis, referring to the
development and survival of a predator is affected by the synchrony with its prey is used
to describe climate effects on ecological patterns and processes in both terrestrial and
marine systems. We expand on the match-mismatch hypothesis by considering the simple
statement: “what is bad for the predator should be good for the prey”. In other word we
reversed the output of the match-mismatch hypothesis, i.e., the increase of the
asynchrony lead to a better survival/recruitment for the prey.
We tested the theoretical model using GAM models on marine time series. We
showed that the effect of predators on prey in the top-down controlled ecosystems can be
modified by the degree of asynchrony. We discuss this result in light of the increase of
amplitude of year-to-year variations in phenology linked to climate change.
Keywords: Reverse match-mismatch, Phenology, Recruitment, Trophic interaction