• Comparison of Uncertainty Estimates in the Short Term Using Real Data 

      Gavaris, S.; Patterson, K. R.; Lewy, P.; Mesnil, Benoit; Punt, A. E.; Cook, R. M.; Kell, Laurence T.; O’Brien, C. M.; Restrepo, V. R.; Skagen, Dankert W.; Stefánsson, Gunnar (ICES CM documents, Working paper, 2000)
      In response to increased interest in the Precautionary Approach, various approaches have been applied to characterize the uncertainty of fisheries assessment projection results. Using three case studies, a comparison of ...
    • Do Different Methods Provide Accurate Probability Statements in the Short Term? 

      Restrepo, V. R.; Patterson, K. R.; Darby, Chris; Gavaris, S.; Kell, Laurence T.; Lewy, P.; Mesnil, Benoit; Punt, A. E.; Cook, R. M.; O’Brien, C. M.; Skagen, Dankert W.; Stefánsson, Gunnar (ICES CM documents, Working paper, 2000)
      The performance of uncertainty estimation procedures was evaluated with respect to accuracy. A confidence statement is said to be accurate if the confidence point achieves the desired probability coverage. A Monte Carlo ...
    • Validating three methods for making probability statements in fisheries forecasts. 

      Patterson, K. R.; Cook, R. M.; Darby, Chris; Gavaris, S.; Mesnil, Benoit; Punt, A. E.; Restrepo, V. R.; Skagen, Dankert W.; Stefánsson, Gunnar; Smith, M. (ICES CM documents, Working paper, 2000)
      We report on a test of three methods that have been used by ICES in making probability statements about fisheries forecasts to management agencies (XSA/WGMTERM, ICA/ICP, and a stochastic projection method that was first ...