• Do Different Methods Provide Accurate Probability Statements in the Short Term? 

      Restrepo, V. R.; Patterson, K. R.; Darby, Chris; Gavaris, S.; Kell, Laurence T.; Lewy, P.; Mesnil, Benoit; Punt, A. E.; Cook, R. M.; O’Brien, C. M.; Skagen, Dankert W.; Stefánsson, Gunnar (ICES CM documents, Working paper, 2000)
      The performance of uncertainty estimation procedures was evaluated with respect to accuracy. A confidence statement is said to be accurate if the confidence point achieves the desired probability coverage. A Monte Carlo ...
    • Validating three methods for making probability statements in fisheries forecasts. 

      Patterson, K. R.; Cook, R. M.; Darby, Chris; Gavaris, S.; Mesnil, Benoit; Punt, A. E.; Restrepo, V. R.; Skagen, Dankert W.; Stefánsson, Gunnar; Smith, M. (ICES CM documents, Working paper, 2000)
      We report on a test of three methods that have been used by ICES in making probability statements about fisheries forecasts to management agencies (XSA/WGMTERM, ICA/ICP, and a stochastic projection method that was first ...